Predictions Are Easy to Make but Extremely Difficult to Fulfill

Take economic forecasts. Several hundred economists, top banks and brokerage companies routinely attempt to predict the future and are paid handsomely for it, even if they're wrong!

If economists, market strategists, stock analysts and other "gurus" were generally on target, their findings wouldn't be so bad. But the problem is that most of the time, these soothsayers are off the mark.

What's the point here?

First, don't place your bets on what the "experts" say.

Second, if the best minds, working long hours and using computer models and research assistants by the dozen can't come close to figuring out the real numbers, do you think you can do any better?

The fact is that no one can predict the future, although no one is likely to give up trying!

The best course of action for investors is to carefully study stocks, bonds and other assets in their portfolio and assume that long-term trends will continue.

That doesn't mean that investors should necessarily stop reading the business pages of the paper. It's always interesting learning the views of others. But don't necessarily trade on them.

Serious investors are watching and waiting. That is, they listen to other views, read the papers and watch their investments for signs of trouble but they do not act unless something is seriously amiss.

Bottom Line:

Stick to your long-term investment plan regardless of pronouncements by the forecasters.