In a bull stock market, it's very easy to make good money using certain growth-oriented strategies. But these strategies often may be extremely dangerous in bear markets.

That puts a premium on one's ability to size up the macro situation and recognize whether it's appropriate to implement this approach or whether a more conservative posture would be more preferable.

In short, we do have to recognize whether we're in a bull market or a bear market!

Many people believe they can do this ...

But in reality, it can be quite difficult.

For example, where do we stand today?

We've only scratched the surface of the March-quarter earnings season, and we (including the Fed) are still debating all over the place for matters such as oil, housing bubbles, China, dollar against euro rates and whether or not the U.S. consumer has anything left in the tank.

So if you are going to be aggressive, it may pay to use an approach that can leave you less exposed to the possibility that your macro vision may turn out to be wrong!