the Identification Cycle ...
If you are going to be successful as an investor, you must take the time to identify companies with adequate financing, great management, realistic market capitalization, solid properties and etc.
How long will you have to wait for your payoff?
Not very long!
The typical "identification cycle" lasts about two years, which means that 2005 and 2006 should see a huge stream of news.
As far as the "mania cycle," that will begin once people get over the "identification cycle," will likely be triggered by a resumption of the downward trajectory of the U.S. dollar.
It is the worrisome aspects of the current market -- when all of us are feeling on edge about the risks -- that makes this a good time to invest.
People do dumb things when they are scared. Like selling great companies. Or sit on the sidelines, keeping their "powder dry for a brighter day!"
And when the brighter days come ...
They will do even dumber things, like spend twice, or ten times, the current ask for the same shares.
They'll be buying those shares from ... me!
The key is to buy when everyone is afraid (like right now), and sell when everyone is confident (in the coming mania).
If you don't have a tolerance for risk, or a willingness to do enough homework to reduce the risk, you really shouldn't be investing -- any more than you should invest with money you can't afford to lose!
By definition, any investment that can turn dimes into dollars can also turn dollars into dimes if you aren't attentive.
This isn't an arena for amateurs. Although I do expect millions of complete amateurs will be in it over the next few years.
But if you can handle the risk ...
There is a very serious opportunity for you to get well positioned ...
Try not to miss it!