"Do not expect too much of the future, but also do not bother too much about the past."
Chinese Proverb
One of the lessons that I learned about the market is that most of the times the simplest strategies are often the most profitable!
Although many investors use several technical indicators and charts, there is no guarantee they will ever be successful in the markets.
If all it took to succeed in the markets were the most sophisticated equipment and software, then those with that equipment would make the most money.
But in reality, it takes more than fancy equipment to be successful in the market. Many people believe that if it isn't complicated, then it's not going to work. I have learned from experience that the opposite is often true.
Keep your investing techniques so simple that even a young boy could understand them. This will give you the opportunity to focus on what the market is telling you. All it takes is a simple but successful strategy to turn you into a winning investor.
All Forecasts Are Wrong!
They differ in the extend of their wrongness, and it is usually possible to improve any forecast by gathering further relevant information or by processing in a more elaborate way, what is already known.
This costs money and time, the expenditure of which can only be justified if greater benefits can be obtained.
Technical analysis looks at the relationships that exist between a stock's price, its volume (the number of shares that trade hands during a single day), and other factors.
By using plotting and various mathematical models and analysis, technical analysts hope to be able to predict future changes in the price of a particular stock.
By looking for particular patterns on a price chart of a stock, for instance, technical analysts try to figure out the direction that the stock's price is likely to move in the future.
Many new traders have a tendency to confuse trading systems and technical analysis indicators. The majority of the confusion comes in the form of confusing the use of technical analysis indicators with systems.
Technical Analysis Indicators
A technical analysis indicator is used to determine the trend of a market, the strength of the market and the direction of the market.
A technical analysis indicator may be specific or non-specific. Some technical analysis indicators can be quantified in the form of an equation or algorithm. Others show up as patterns (e.g. head and shoulders, trendlines, support and resistance).
At some point, the technical analyst will receive a signal. This signal is the result of one technical analysis indicator or more than one technical analysis indicators in combination. The signal indicates to the technical analyst a course of action (e.g. buy, sell, hold).
The technical analyst will determine the method to use. However, it must be specific, objective, and reliable. The method is a subjective and not mechanical. This is a significant difference between a trading system and a technical analysis indicator.
Anyone with an imagination can create a technical analysis indicator. Everyday at least one new technical analysis indicator is created.
Over the years thousands have come and gone. Most of them don't tell us anything about the market. They're useless. Many others are of no use whatsoever.
Timing indicators tend to work in some types of markets (e.g. trending or sideways) and not others. They may also work with some securities and not others.
Therefore, they tend to be unreliable!
Timing indicators are also subjective and require interpretation. Based on my experience, most amateur traders tend to use timing indicators and base their decisions to buy, sell, or hold on them.
Many traders, after using an indicator or indicators with success turn them into a trading system. This does not mean that the trader has found the holy grail of trading systems.
Instead, what many traders find is that when the indicators are combined into a trading system, they lose their effectiveness.
Technical Analysis Trading Systems
A trading system is created by generating signals, setting up a decision making procedure, and incorporating risk management into the system.
A trading system is supposed to be objective and mechanical. The analyst combines a set of objective trading rules (usually in a formula or algorithm).
As a general rule, good technical analysis indicators are the building blocks of good trading systems.
However, as previously mentioned, even good technical analysis indicators can lose their validity when combined in a trading system.
Therefore, it is important to not only back-test your system but to also forward-test your system in real time.
